The priciest ticket on Broadway is for a show that hasn't opened

The most expensive average ticket on Broadway last week wasn't Hamilton. It was a play that hasn't opened yet.

Other Desert Cities started previews at the Hudson on September 29. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (making her Broadway debut), Ed Harris, Allison Janney, Joe Keery and Lily Rabe. In its first partial week it took in $1.88 million, filled every seat, and averaged $275.66 a ticket. Hamilton averaged $251.78. The top seat went for $799. Opening night isn't until October 18.

Welcome to the first issue of The Broadway Board. Coffee's on. Let's look at the week ending Sunday, October 4.

The Board

Every week we put each running show on two scales: how much attention it's getting, and what share of its seats it's filling. Draw a line at 90% of seats filled and another at the typical show's attention, and you get four boxes. Hits have both. Quiet sellers fill the house without much noise. Buzz, empty seats is the reverse. At risk has neither, which is a label for the box, not a forecast for the show.

Three shows moved up into Hits this week.

The Rocky Horror Show jumped from 83% of seats filled to 92%. It's October. Of course it did.

Operation Mincemeat went from 87% to 90%, and its attention has now risen three weeks running. Slow and steady, like a good spy.

& Juliet crept from 89% to 90%. The timing is bittersweet: the show announced on September 10 that it will close January 3, and its attention nearly doubled over the next two weeks. Seats have followed.

One show slid the other way. Aladdin dropped from 92% to 88% of seats filled, which tips it out of Quiet sellers and into the bottom-left box. Before anyone panics, it still grossed $971,000. More on Aladdin below.

And a near miss: Oh, Mary! fell from a nearly full 99.8% to 93.3% and gave back $241,000 in a week. It's still a Hit. Barely. It's also up 28% on the same week last year, so nobody's passing the hat.

The reigning champion of Quiet sellers remains MJ: 98% of seats filled, $1.59 million in the till, and the second-lowest attention of any show that's opened. The people who want to see it are going. They're just not looking it up first.

The Pulse

All 28 shows grossed $27.7 million, up 15% on the week before and down 11.8% from the same week last year.

The average ticket was $122.51, against $134.02 a year ago. The average show filled 89.4% of its seats, versus 90.4%. Strip out the three shows still in previews and the gap widens: $24.6 million, down 19%.

Seats are nearly as full as they were. People are paying less to sit in them. Last October the street had Waiting for Godot, Art, Mamma Mia! and Death Becomes Her all grossing north of $1.3 million, and none of them are on this week's list. Wicked did $2.05 million at 100% that week; this week it did $1.11 million at 88%, with an average ticket of $87. Hamilton is still the biggest show in town, but its average ticket is about $96 lower than a year ago.

That's why the star-driven fall arrivals matter. Other Desert Cities and Billy Crystal's 860 (previews at the Imperial, opening October 21) brought in $2.7 million between them in their first week.

Closing watch

A quick note on how this works. This is a watch list: shows where seats filled and attention have both been sliding for a few weeks. It's not a prediction, and producers have plenty of reasons to keep going that never show up in a weekly chart.

First, a check on the method. The only three shows below 70% of seats filled this week, SIX, Stranger Things: The First Shadow and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), have all already announced closing dates. Two Strangers goes November 29; the other two January 3.

Two shows without closing dates are worth watching:

The Great Gatsby. Attention has fallen three weeks in a row. Seats filled went from 92% to 78% to 80% over the last three weeks. Still grossing $885,000.

Aladdin. The lowest attention of any show that's opened, drifting down for three straight weeks, while seats filled went from 96% to 92% to 88%. This is a long-runner that has been through plenty of Octobers, so call it a yellow light, not a red one.

Quick hits

Fuller than full. Hamilton filled 101.4% of its seats. Somebody's watching from the back wall.

Biggest price jump. Just in Time raised its average ticket $13.64 in a single week, to $146.41, and grossed $105,000 more than the week before. Its top seat, $774.50, was second only to Other Desert Cities.

Don't read too much into the Lion King dip. It fell about $200,000 because it cancelled its Saturday matinee. Seven shows instead of eight.

Your turn

Would you pay $799 to see Julia Louis-Dreyfus before the critics do? Hit reply and tell me.

See you next Friday.

Brian