Attention Matters

Attention costs money. Here's how to tell if it's working.

Every industry pays to be noticed. Almost none of them measure whether it worked. What we measure, what it predicts, and what to do with it.

October 9, 2026The Rabbit Hole · Fan Equity

Every show, team, artist and brand spends money to be noticed.

Some of it is paid: ads, trailers, billboards, a marketing agency on retainer. Some of it is earned: reviews, press, an awards run, a viral clip, a star who agrees to do the talk shows. Earned isn't free either. Somebody spent months making it happen.

And most of the time, nobody can tell you whether it worked.

You can count what you bought. Impressions, placements, clicks. You can count what you sold. Tickets, streams, subscriptions. What sits between those two numbers is the part that decides everything, and almost nobody measures it: did people actually turn toward you?

That's attention. It's what we measure.

What we mean by attention

Attention, the way we measure it, is people going looking for something on their own. Every day, for everything we track, we count how many people actively sought it out, and we rank it against everything else in its category.

It isn't likes. It isn't impressions you paid for. Nobody can buy a spot on it directly. You can only earn it, or pay for something that earns it.

We rank instead of counting because the internet itself keeps shifting. As AI tools answer more questions directly, people look things up in different places, and raw totals drift. A ranking holds up. If you moved from 9th to 4th in your category, you gained on the field, whatever the totals did.

Does it matter?

Here's what the data says so far. Some of it is obvious. Some of it isn't.

Attention tells you which way you're heading. On Broadway, when a show's attention rises 25% or more over a month, its seats fill about a point more the following month. When attention falls 20%, seats slip by about a point. Last month's seat trend tells you the opposite. It tends to reverse.

Selling out without attention is fragile. Shows that fill their houses but draw little attention almost never become hits. Only 6% get there within two months, and on average they lose about two points of seats over that stretch. The box office looks fine right up until it doesn't.

Attention with empty seats is the most promising place to be. Shows people are curious about but not yet buying have the cheapest tickets on Broadway. They also produce the next hits. A quarter of them become hits within eight weeks, and their grosses grow while every other group's shrink.

Attention and results mostly agree, and the gaps are the story. Across Netflix launches, the shows people sought out and the shows people watched lined up closely. Where they split, something real was going on. One series was 21st in viewing and 2nd in attention. Another was 2nd in viewing and 21st in attention. Those are two very different businesses.

Is it worth paying for?

Sometimes. The answer depends on what kind of attention you get and whether it stays.

Most spikes fade. When something suddenly gets looked up far more than usual, about one in five leaves a higher floor behind. The rest go back to where they started within weeks. When brands redesigned their logos, the new logo held attention for about a week. A new name held it for about a month. The biggest spikes of all came from backlash.

Four out of five spikes drift back to where they started.
One leaves a higher floor.
What usually happens after attention spikes. Illustration based on the index: about one in five spikes leaves a lasting higher floor.

So the question isn't whether a campaign made noise. It's whether it moved your floor. A spike you paid for that leaves nothing behind is an expense. A spike that leaves a higher floor is an asset.

That's also how to grade paid against earned. Paid media buys reach you can count. Attention tells you whether that reach made anyone go looking. If you spent heavily and your rank in the category didn't move, you bought impressions, not attention.

When do you need more?

Not always. Put attention next to the number your business already trusts and you get four very different situations.

RESULTS (SEATS, SALES, VIEWING) →
STRONG RESULTS · LITTLE ATTENTION
Quiet sellers
6%
become hits within 8 weeks; on average they lose about 2 points of seats
What to do: get more attention before the results slip.
STRONG RESULTS · LOTS OF ATTENTION
Hits
116
average ticket vs. a market average of 100
What to do: protect it. This is where pricing power lives.
WEAK RESULTS · LITTLE ATTENTION
At risk
3%
become hits within 8 weeks
What to do: decide. Invest to change it, or plan the exit.
WEAK RESULTS · LOTS OF ATTENTION
Buzz, empty seats
24%
become hits within 8 weeks, and grosses grow about 4%
What to do: don't buy more attention. Convert what you have.
ATTENTION →
The four corners, with what happened next on Broadway: about 3,000 show-weeks since 2023, followed eight weeks forward.

And some attention you don't want. When a Six Flags ride had a serious incident recently, attention to the ride jumped about 150 times its normal level. The park rose about six times. The company less than doubled. In a crisis, the goal can be keeping attention narrow, not making it bigger.

PEAK ATTENTION AFTER THE INCIDENT, VS. A NORMAL DAY
The ride
154×
The park
6.3×
Six Flags
1.8×
Bars on a log scale so all three are visible.
In a crisis, attention attaches to the name people connect with it. Here that was the ride, not the company.

How do you get it?

What moves attention in our data is mostly what you'd guess: launches, news, awards, casting, controversy, a moment people share. What isn't obvious until you measure it is how much each one is worth, how long it lasts, and whether it moved you or just moved the whole category.

That last part matters more than it sounds. If every show on Broadway got more attention during awards season, your rise wasn't yours. Ranking against the field tells you whether you gained on it.

Why measure it at all

You track money every week. Revenue, grosses, streams, ticket sales. You know those numbers to the dollar.

Attention comes before the money. It's what the marketing budget buys, what the press team chases, and what tells you whether next month will look like this one. Most businesses manage it on instinct.

We think it deserves the same treatment as revenue: measured every day, compared with everyone else, and put next to the results it's supposed to drive.

That's what each edition of Attention Matters does for one industry. It starts with The Broadway Board.

See every name, every day.Fan Equity ranks athletes, teams, shows, films and brands by the attention fans give them.
Request access